Estimated date of exhaustion of Oil

According the Energy EU website oil will finish  Oct 22 2047 which means that in less then 40 years we will not rely on oli anymore… The exact date of exhaustion sounds a bit ridiculous. Many variables that can change in the next 40 years an maybe goverments and company keep confidential a lot of information that make this  prediction wrong.

Most of the theories about the ending of the Oil Era take inspiration from the Hubbert peak .   This theory is based on the observation that the amount of oil under the ground in any region is finite, therefore the rate of discovery which initially increases quickly must reach a maximum and decline. His logistic model, now called Hubbert peak theory, has since been used to predict with reasonable accuracy the peak and decline of petroleum production of many countries, and has also proved useful in other limited-resource production-domains. According to the Hubbert model, the production rate of a limited resource will follow a roughly symmetrical bell-shaped curve based on the limits of exploitability and market pressures. Various modified versions of his original logistic model are used, using more complex functions to allow for real world factors. While each version is applied to a specific domain, the central features of the Hubbert curve (that production stops rising, flattens and then declines) remain unchanged, albeit with different profiles.


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